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Under a reference case, where all agents are presumed to offer power at production cost, the study found that prices vary by up to a factor of four across zones as a result of transmission congestion, particularly in the summer months. Several zones begin to exhibit typical signs of load pockets. The figures displayed below show several zones where locational marginal prices (LMPs) become significantly higher or lower than elsewhere in the study area.
Addition runs of the EMCAS software tried to identify the potential for generation companies to exploit their strategic position to profitably raise prices above marginal production cost. The analysis takes into account a variety of strategies (e.g., physical and economic withholding) and a host of aspects that drive the ability to successfully exert strategic behavior, including temporal (ability to influence prices may be limited to certain hours), spatial (not all busses may be susceptible to strategic behavior), and technological (not all types of generators equally lend themselves to gaming). Results for various strategic behavior runs are presented in the final study report, which was posted on the ICC website on 06-13-2006, and can be accessed at www.adica.com
About EMCAS
The Electricity Market Complex Adaptive System software is designed to meet the growing need for advanced modeling approaches that simulate how electricity markets may evolve over time. EMCAS employs an innovative agent-based modeling approach to more accurately model the complex interactions between physical infrastructures (generation, transmission, and distribution) and economic behavior of market participants.
About ADICA
ADICA is a leading provider of energy consulting and cutting-edge energy system analysis software for Government Agencies and Energy Companies worldwide. Headquartered in Oak Brook, Illinois, USA, ADICA specializes in the application of innovative agent-based modeling software created by Argonne National Laboratory for simulating electricity markets. ADICA is worldwide distributor of the EMCAS software.
About Argonne
Argonne National Laboratory is one of the U.S. Department of Energy’s largest research centers. It is also the nation’s first laboratory, chartered in 1946. Today, the laboratory has about 2,900 employees, of whom about 750 hold doctorate degrees. Argonne’s annual operating budget of about $475 million supports upwards of 200 research projects ranging from studies of the atomic nucleus to global climate change research.
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